2008 - Where do I start?
Predictions from the start of a year are not a bad place to begin and thanks to my chums at Transact for their view here:
January 2008: the five biggest investment banks in the US are Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Three have disappeared (completely or have been subsumed into another organisation) and none exist solely as investment banks.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the world’s largest independent mortgage houses. Now, the US government is the world’s largest mortgage house.
AIG is the biggest insurance company in the world. Now it is basically an agency of the US government.
December, the National Bureau of Economic Research http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html admits that the US has been in recession since December 2007.
In the UK, Northern Rock, RBS and Lloyds TSB (and HBOS) have effectively been nationalised.
October 2007, mortgage loans granted in the UK are £8 billion. October 2008, the comparable figure is £459 million - 5.7 per cent of the previous figure. Getting a mortage is painful as it is like dealing with lenders when they have the auditors in where the latter know very little about them. As the writer said, you could not make this stuff up.
Investment business is quiet and where some holdings are being liquidated, we are staying in cash for now. For budding entrepreneurs, my favourite networking group http://www.3cscommunity.com/ meets again 14th January.
As a portent of things to come http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/4046014/Adults-could-be-forced-to-take-out-private-insurance-to-cover-nursing-home-costs.html Again the UK seems to be following the example of Germany which introduced this pflegeversicherung a few years ago. Since the Germans invented the state pension in the first place, perhaps we should not be surprised http://www.georgeemsden.co.uk/2006/05/a-little-more-reality-returns-to-pensions/
All of which makes me think of the happier things in July 2008 where (equal) top of the list was my daughter’s wedding in Italy. With a year’s notice there is plenty of time to plan but we being human, something always crops up. Obvious choice for me is to fly and hire a car but wanting to stop off and visit family around Germany, I find I cannot hire a car in Italy and leave it in say, Netherlands, so I am in for a marathon drive. Car serviced and luggage packed, I have no trouble waking up at 4.30 a.m. to drive to Dover to catch the 8.00 ferry. Nerves are slightly on edge as I am carrying my daughter’s wedding dress and a sister’s bridesmaid’s dress plus some goodies for the wedding breakfast. Praying that Sod’s law will happen to someone else and with the feeling like I am carrying the Crown Jewels I set off in the morning twilight. Half expectedly, I am quite early but panic when asked for a slip of paper that I am supposed to have been given when I present my ticket at the docks? Turns out it is on the floor and after a chat with a German glider pilot, we start to board. Glider trailers are easy to recognise, being long and thin and it seems he enjoyed the competition he came here to participate in.
Two hours on the ferry to Dunkirk and the hour time difference have us off the boat after 11.00 local time with 782 miles to go according to an RAC route planner. The route is south past Rheims, Dijon and while the long way round is simplest via Lyon and then turning east, signs for Geneva encourange me to cut off a long corner on my route. The Audi flies along in France but the mountain roads in Switzerland and Italy are naturally slower and the speed limit in the Mont Blanc tunnel is 75km/hr. There is little traffic here and guessing that there are CCTV monitors, the cost is a €32 toll, unlike one of the wedding guests who picked up an on the spot €150 speeding fine as well.
In Italy now, I am driving away from Monte Bianco in the direction of Torino. Signs for Milano are visible and I am approaching from the west and feeling quite pleased as after Milano, Lecco is to the NE. Thoughts that I might be there at midnight are dashed when we are diverted off the motorway at 10 pm. The Diverzionne all seem to say Milano and we are now being steered south around the city. A full moon is up and as we all drive through various suburbs, we are going east and then north and it is time to ask directions as I am lost. Finally, I get some useful directions from security guards on an industrial estate who can speak French but not English, and I am heading north in the direction of Como. A respectable 70 -80 mph feels like walking as several cars pass me at over 100 mph (160 kph) and I reach lake Como. The lake is like an inverted “Y” and I am at the SW bit. Lecco in general and Calolziocorte are on the SE bit and I head off east. At least there are signs for Lecco but none for the latter. Thinking of asking for directions, there is a smartly-dressed young lady, cigarrette in hand, waiting by a brightly lit roundabout but at one-o-clock in the morning, it occurs to me that her directions might impede my progress rather than help it.
Lecco is reached at 1.30 am. My mobile is not showing any signal so I cannot call my daughter - easily cured I found out later by switching the mobile off and then on again. A lorry driver with his Tom Tom shows me I am 15km away from my target and other directions find me back in Lecco. I have been driving since 11 am but the Red Bull and espresso can only do so much. If I do not get there soon, I will have to get some rest in the car. Few people are about at 2 am and asking ladies for directions is a bit difficult, as few want to talk to a stranger at that time. Spotting one lady in a mini who has stopped to open her apartment doors, I am at last given proper directions to Calolziocorte which is further along a road I had driven along 20 minutes before. Thirty minutes later, the carribinieri flag me down to my intense relief. One of them speaks English and when I explain that I am really glad to see them, they more than surprised. Calolziocorte is a few kms away (still no signposts) and after explaining why I am driving round at that ungodly hour, I am given a fast police escort to my hotel. This means getting the manager out of bed at 3.50 am and with well over 800 miles on the clock, I park the car at the bank next door. On reflection, it would have been nice to have had the sirens and blue lights as well, but perhaps one can’t have everything….
To be continued.
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