Archive for November 2007


Sub-prime Tremors and Bankrolling Basra

November 24th, 2007 — 2:18am

My journey to my Friday morning networking meeting with BRX Bond Street group http://www.brebondstreet.co.uk/script/site/default.asp at the RAF Club in Piccadilly, starts the day with a bump when I read of a small earthquake in the mortgage market.

For many years, it was a mystery to me why people with a relatively minor blot on their credit records, got such harsh treatment from lenders. Kensington Mortgage Company spotted an opportunity here and practically invented sub-prime lending in the UK. This naturally was more expensive than prime lending but was more profitable and other lenders waded in. Rates were high at first, with strangely little difference between minor adverse borrowers and heavy adverse ones. Competition eventually made these differentials more logical, but the average margin was still over one per cent above cost of funds – much more than the average 0.2 per cent profit margin in the prime sector. High Street lenders who had shown borrowers the door, now became more lenient.

But over the last few months things have gradually become less favourable. More and more products with attractive interest rates have huge Arrangement Fees, lending criteria gradually tightened up and when Northern Rock happened, this was the last straw with many lenders losing their nerve. The lenders I am referring to here are the big wholesale lenders who happily gave the other lenders huge credit facilities allowing them to borrow in the London Money Market at the London Inter-bank Offered Rate (LIBOR). Once these facilities were withdrawn or maybe not renewed, it was impossible for them to get the funds to lend to their customers and do further business. This is what happened to Kensington and their stopping sub-prime lending is rather like the Ritz announcing that it will not be renting rooms for a long while. They will still be lending but only in the overcrowded prime market.

On a brighter note, the UK mortgage market is still very competitive and if you don’t shop around, you are probably paying too much. The best time to look is 2-3 months before the fixed or penalty period ends. The question that always comes up here is “Should I fix my mortgage loan rate?” As you pay a premium over the current variable rate if you fix, the question then becomes, is it worthwhile paying this extra amount – if rates do go up?

Much as I would like to have one, mortgage brokers do not have a crystal ball and there is always a gamble involved here. If you fix, you are gambling that rates will not go down, if you stick with a variable rate, you are gambling that rates will not go up! Your choice.

For some strange reason, an e-mail from AccountingWEB detailing the financial shambles in Iraq catches my eye. In 2003, an American firm with the stirring name of Custer Battles obtains an airport contract even when it has no employees, massively overcharges for electricity and food, purloins fork lift trucks from Baghdad Airport, resprays and leases them back to the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) and unsurprisingly, is convicted for fraud by a US Court. However, its name seems to save it as this verdict is overturned and it even makes the finals of the 2003 Ernst & Young New England Entrepreneur of the Year Award. You could not make this stuff up in a novel.

All this reminds me of an earlier read Bankrolling Basra by Andrew Alderson (ISBN – 978-1-84529-510-3) a Territorial Army soldier who played a hair-raising role in getting the country functioning again. This included paying out US$26 million to various Iraqi workers in cash, using lots of black bin liners. The amazing courage shown by some ordinary Iraqis when trying to work with the coalition forces is quite moving and something that does not always make the headlines. In one case, a lady interpreter was shot when shopping with her husband, leaving him dead and her critically ill.

Back in Blighty, another visit to Dilys my kinesiologist, who has now moved to the prestigious Hale Clinic http://www.haleclinic.com/ confirms my continuing good recovery. I still need to stock on the supplements so my intestines will be rattling for a while yet. My intended visit to the office is postponed when I am told to go home and rest as I am looking tired. Going out the door, I am told that I push myself too hard…

For the future in 2008, I will be holding a Meet George event dealing with current financial topics at a central London venue, further details soon. If anyone wishes to meet me this year, I have thirteen working days left as I will be in Thailand for four weeks from 16th December. I probably will try the barbequed rat I mentioned previously http://www.georgeemsden.co.uk/?p=78 but my Thai friends have persuaded me to avoid curried dog available in remoter parts of Thailand. This wonderful idea came from Paul Merton’s China travel programme on BBC earlier this week but then he did not eat it either.

On the subject of food and nearing the twelve days of Christmas, the book The Longest Crawl by Ian Marchant could be another stocking filler. The crawl here is a pub crawl from the Scilly Isles to Unst in the Shetland Isles. While beer consumption has declined, real ale consumption is increasing and there are now hundreds of small pubs brewing their own beer whereas in 1974 there were only four.

2 comments » | Cancer, IFA Weekly Diary, Mortgages

Northern Rock and Blue murder

November 15th, 2007 — 6:39pm

In the aftermath of Northern Rock, the Government issues a consultation paper on depositor protection. This seems to be more focussed on amounts of protection rather than the tri-partite regulatory system that led to the fiasco in the first place. The link to this paper is here: http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/consultations_and_legislation/bankingreform/consult_banking_reform.cfm but it did not work when I went to have a look. Comments for this one are supposed to be in by 5th December but maybe we should not worry too much as there will be a proper consultation paper out in “early 2008″.

Whatever the amounts are, the degree of actual protection will not work out exactly the same for people who have more than one bank account. Banks like HSBC which operate under one banking licence will mean that only one instance of protection is available for any one depositor. But other banking groups like RBS which have separate licences for each of their subsidiaries, mean that a depositor will be entitled to same level of protection in each group company.

In the same vein, a new client wants to attend a seminar on the Companies Act 2006 hosted by my friends, Vizards Tweedie in Fetter Lane http://www.vtlaw.co.uk/ as he will be manager of a UK company when it opens for business later this year. It makes a change from dragging clients along to these things even when they are really important. The new Act consolidates some existing legislation and owners and directors of their own companies will need to be aware of the procedural changes in Board Resolutions for example, and talk to their accountants. At 1,341 pages, it is the largest ever piece of UK legislation and more than double that of the previous record holder – the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 under which IFAs operate. Previous howlers seem to have been avoided here as the original draft of the latter Act where the FSA was to be judge, jury and executioner meant that an IFA had more rights under the law if they had murdered somebody than if they were guilty of a breach of FSA rules.

The same evening, I attend my favourite networking group www.3Cscommunity.org which is a bit like Dragons’ Den but less combative. Although presentations are vetted, evenings tend to have one really good presentation, one average and maybe one below average. We have a vintage evening of three excellent pitches with my favourite from my friend Charlie Lass of www.viapost.com whose company makes the business of sending a letter much more eco-friendly and efficient. A letter is typed normally but printed locally on headed paper or whatever near the recipient and delivered in the normal way. It looks no different when it comes through the letter box but the savings in hauling lorry loads of letters all around the country are huge and the cost is less than a first class stamp. Savings for the client company are in stationery and postage – not to mention printer ink where one of our printers managed to use £3,000 worth of ink in a year.

For entrepreneurs looking for funding, the success rate is much higher with this group than the average, as detailed in my previous blog http://www.georgeemsden.co.uk/?p=86 Next 3Cs meeting 5th December.

By way of a complete change, I will be popping into Gallery Forty Seven, 47 Great Russell Street, Bloomsbury London WC1B 3PB opposite the British Museum, where my friend Anna has an exhibition this week 19 -25 November www.annalovedayminshall.com

1 comment » | IFA Weekly Diary

Winch for the Skies

November 8th, 2007 — 1:58pm

Sunday finds me again at my spiritual home Lasham, with a need to clock up launches and time. The rigorous flying test which would enable me to go on an assistant instructors course and do air-experience flights is a long way ahead so I start this long journey with a small step, by having two winch launches. After being told for much of the year to maintain my weight while I was having RT, I am now told that I need to lose weight as my current bulk puts me over a new European weight limit. Because of my membership status, I have to fly with an instructor and after he checks with the Deputy CFI, I am cleared to fly without a parachute. He points out that the 1,100 or so feet one might get with a winch launch today would make a parachute difficult to use in an emergency anyway but he is busily strapping on his ‘chute while telling me this – life seems very unfair sometimes.

Most non-flying people and for that matter most power pilots, would not know how to put one on and if you wonder why airlines do not offer passengers parachutes, I would suggest you try wearing one. If adjusted properly and standing upright, they are especially uncomfortable for men, crease one’s clothes, pull one’s trousers up well above the ankle and usually make the wearer look ridiculous. From a style point of view, they are definitely not cool.

I have not done a winch launch for about 4 years so my host in the back will do the launch and I will do the landing. While all the kerfuffle about my weight has been happening, I manage to get the paperwork sorted out for my guest to have an air experience flight but she will have an aerotow – where the launch is much more gentle – from the main runway while winch launches are operating from the grass. As I am getting ready, the hot air balloon which has been loitering to the north of the airfield gently plonks down on the grass outside the clubhouse and thankfully deflates after about 10 minutes. Had it taken off again, it would have disrupted the flying for about 25 minutes, costing the club revenue.

Checks done, the “Take up Slack” command is given and the lights on the retrieve winch and then on the main launching winch start flashing. Ten seconds later, the launch cable is tight and we are accelerating fast, and when 50 knots has built up the stick is eased back and we are climbing steeply with my feet pointing up at the sky. The pilot in the back is a retired former RAF Vampire pilot and we keep a steady 60 knots on the launch. Levelling out at 1,100 feet and before we get to release the launch cable, the automatic back release does this for us. Slightly careless from a flying point of view but that is what it is there for.

You have control” I trim out to about 45 knots and practise a few turns over the south side of the airfield. I am flying an ASK 13, an older metal and fabric covered machine that is still used the world over for training and in which thousands of glider pilots have got their wings. Where it loses out these days is in performance, and I am politely reminded that I am not flying a glassfibre glider where the height needed to do a safe circuit is much less. There is very little wind and I do a wide lazy circuit at 55 knots landing on the grass between the winch launch point and the runway where 3 gliders are waiting for the tug.

I do the next launch and am quietly pleased that I manage more height than when the other guy was in control. As we are flying back to the hangar rather than returning to the launch point, I fly north to the other side of the main runway so we do not have to cross it on the base leg of the circuit. It is late in the day and there are no ripples of lift or zero sink in the usual places so I just do some gentle turns to use up my height. The air is silky smooth and I touch down on the grass steering towards the perimeter track on the last bit of the ground run. Gliders may be very graceful in the air but really are the proverbial lame ducks on the ground. With only two of us to push it across the grass and the hundred or so yards to the hangar, each yard saved is a relief. Other gliders are being parked as tightly as possible inside the hangar, so we park it outside for now.

As I walk to get to my car, my guest lands in another ASK 13 grinning from ear to ear. After taking the instructor back to his car at the launch point and picking a few wild mushrooms on the way, a lovely dinner at The Poachers’ Arms in South Warnborough rounds off a perfect day.

Back in London everything has stepped up a gear. Leaving the office on Monday evening, the huge array of film equipment that has been stacked all around Tabernacle and Leonard Street comes to life as The Tabernacle Restaurant next door has been hired for the week. There are lorries, cables and generators everywhere as the filming of Frankyn, about a Gulf War veteran goes on till the early hours.

My announcement to my family that I will be away again for Christmas gives me the feeling that it is starting early, as my first Christmas present arrives. A good reminder me to do my own Christmas shopping on-line again – plus I now have a definite date for my daughter’s wedding in Italy next year.

Finally at my second post-treatment cancer clinic, my appointment with the worm (nasendoscope) is short. After selecting my left nostril again, being told to say Eeeeeee, count one, two, three as the worm is pushed into my voicebox, then told to puff out my cheeks as it is withdrawn, I am told there is no trace of any tumour on my vocal cords. A common result with RT apparently where the tumour is detected early. Next appointment January.

1 comment » | Cancer, Gliding, IFA Weekly Diary

Steaming and Streeting

November 2nd, 2007 — 1:04am

Twice daily steaming seems to make a noticeable improvement to my voice which is confirmed on my third visit to the voice therapist. The abstract red and green patterns mentioned in http://www.georgeemsden.co.uk/?p=103 have moderated slightly with the normal green area in the centre now larger and less red spikiness on the outside. These graphics come from one sound only so just to make sure, I get to read the story of Arthur the Rat again http://www.georgeemsden.co.uk/?p=98 but to its rather sad end this time, where he ends up lifeless under a pile of rubble.

Again in the distance, a stonking gliding sky with cloud streets rather than the more common individual cotton wool cumulus clouds tries to grab my attention. With the former, you can fly for miles in strong lift without circling and get amazing cross country speeds that you would never get on our crowded roads in a vehicle with an engine. But we are now out of Summer Time and back on GMT, so we are looking at it an hour later and the sky is visibly dying during the appointment.

A longer interval to the next appointment and some more voice exercises suggests all is going well. Next week, I have the joy of the worm up my nose again.

One of the positive things about this cancer episode has been the good wishes from other people who have had cancer and are now getting on with their lives. It is as if there is a small army of unsung heroes out there. Of the seven or so people who have been in touch about their own experiences, four have had bladder cancer – three men and one woman. For a man’s experience here is one link http://my-bladder-cancer-journey.blogspot.com/ by David Ferdinando and Suzan St Maur’s link is here http://www.cancercomicstrip.blogspot.com/ Suffice to say, the treatment involves regular use of a catheter which for guys is a bit uncomfortable and made me squirm in my seat reading it. But as another cancer comrade said, it is amazing what you can get used to! Better have a glass of water now, I think.

Back in the world of work, in2 Consulting is teaming up with a leading wealth management player who are doing their due diligence over the next two months at a cost to them of £200,000. For small IFA firm, this is quite flattering and will improve the range and quality of our advice.

In the wake of the Northern Rock fiasco, the rot has really set in and in the sub-prime and Buy-to-Let mortgage market other brokers and solicitors tell me of some lenders trying to wriggle out of new mortgage offers on the flimsiest of excuses, quoting details which would have been overlooked before. Second mortgage deals which offered people over 100 per cent Loan to Value a short time ago for employed people, now only offer 80 per cent and are going to make life difficult for people who were hoping to add the plastic card bill onto their mortgage.

To finish on a musical note and probably with a subconscious eye on Christmas, I finally move into the 21st century and set up my own iTunes account – some time after my children have. The hard drive in my laptop now has 13 of my favourite tracks and while one or two have lost their shine after being played 8 times, it doesn’t exactly break the bank at 79p a go. My current favourite “Viva il bianco, viva il nero” by Stefano Palatresi, is a jaunty little salsa/bachata? number that is quite rejuvenating and which I found by accident. But don’t play it before you go to bed or you will humming it until 2 a.m.

4 comments » | Cancer, Gliding, IFA Weekly Diary

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