Sub-prime Tremors and Bankrolling Basra
My journey to my Friday morning networking meeting with BRX Bond Street group http://www.brebondstreet.co.uk/script/site/default.asp at the RAF Club in Piccadilly, starts the day with a bump when I read of a small earthquake in the mortgage market.
For many years, it was a mystery to me why people with a relatively minor blot on their credit records, got such harsh treatment from lenders. Kensington Mortgage Company spotted an opportunity here and practically invented sub-prime lending in the UK. This naturally was more expensive than prime lending but was more profitable and other lenders waded in. Rates were high at first, with strangely little difference between minor adverse borrowers and heavy adverse ones. Competition eventually made these differentials more logical, but the average margin was still over one per cent above cost of funds – much more than the average 0.2 per cent profit margin in the prime sector. High Street lenders who had shown borrowers the door, now became more lenient.
But over the last few months things have gradually become less favourable. More and more products with attractive interest rates have huge Arrangement Fees, lending criteria gradually tightened up and when Northern Rock happened, this was the last straw with many lenders losing their nerve. The lenders I am referring to here are the big wholesale lenders who happily gave the other lenders huge credit facilities allowing them to borrow in the London Money Market at the London Inter-bank Offered Rate (LIBOR). Once these facilities were withdrawn or maybe not renewed, it was impossible for them to get the funds to lend to their customers and do further business. This is what happened to Kensington and their stopping sub-prime lending is rather like the Ritz announcing that it will not be renting rooms for a long while. They will still be lending but only in the overcrowded prime market.
On a brighter note, the UK mortgage market is still very competitive and if you don’t shop around, you are probably paying too much. The best time to look is 2-3 months before the fixed or penalty period ends. The question that always comes up here is “Should I fix my mortgage loan rate?” As you pay a premium over the current variable rate if you fix, the question then becomes, is it worthwhile paying this extra amount – if rates do go up?
Much as I would like to have one, mortgage brokers do not have a crystal ball and there is always a gamble involved here. If you fix, you are gambling that rates will not go down, if you stick with a variable rate, you are gambling that rates will not go up! Your choice.
For some strange reason, an e-mail from AccountingWEB detailing the financial shambles in Iraq catches my eye. In 2003, an American firm with the stirring name of Custer Battles obtains an airport contract even when it has no employees, massively overcharges for electricity and food, purloins fork lift trucks from Baghdad Airport, resprays and leases them back to the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) and unsurprisingly, is convicted for fraud by a US Court. However, its name seems to save it as this verdict is overturned and it even makes the finals of the 2003 Ernst & Young New England Entrepreneur of the Year Award. You could not make this stuff up in a novel.
All this reminds me of an earlier read Bankrolling Basra by Andrew Alderson (ISBN – 978-1-84529-510-3) a Territorial Army soldier who played a hair-raising role in getting the country functioning again. This included paying out US$26 million to various Iraqi workers in cash, using lots of black bin liners. The amazing courage shown by some ordinary Iraqis when trying to work with the coalition forces is quite moving and something that does not always make the headlines. In one case, a lady interpreter was shot when shopping with her husband, leaving him dead and her critically ill.
Back in Blighty, another visit to Dilys my kinesiologist, who has now moved to the prestigious Hale Clinic http://www.haleclinic.com/ confirms my continuing good recovery. I still need to stock on the supplements so my intestines will be rattling for a while yet. My intended visit to the office is postponed when I am told to go home and rest as I am looking tired. Going out the door, I am told that I push myself too hard…
For the future in 2008, I will be holding a Meet George event dealing with current financial topics at a central London venue, further details soon. If anyone wishes to meet me this year, I have thirteen working days left as I will be in Thailand for four weeks from 16th December. I probably will try the barbequed rat I mentioned previously http://www.georgeemsden.co.uk/?p=78 but my Thai friends have persuaded me to avoid curried dog available in remoter parts of Thailand. This wonderful idea came from Paul Merton’s China travel programme on BBC earlier this week but then he did not eat it either.
On the subject of food and nearing the twelve days of Christmas, the book The Longest Crawl by Ian Marchant could be another stocking filler. The crawl here is a pub crawl from the Scilly Isles to Unst in the Shetland Isles. While beer consumption has declined, real ale consumption is increasing and there are now hundreds of small pubs brewing their own beer whereas in 1974 there were only four.